Политика националне безбедности 1/2025

MILITARY INTERVENTIONS IN THE UNIPOLARITY: LESSONS FOR SECURITY DYNAMICS OF US-CHINA RELATIONS AMID TRUMP’S SECOND TERM

Аутори
УДКUDC: 355.3+327.8(510:73) Стране125-146 Година2025
Преузми PDF 10.5937/pnb28-55696
Преглед истраживања

Сажетак

Humanitarian interventionism, a hallmark of the unipolar era following the Cold War, has been widely debated as a mechanism for addressing alleged human rights violations and safeguarding global security. Rooted in principles such as the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), these interventions have often intersected with the strategic interests of dominant powers, particularly the United States. This paper examines the evolving dynamics of humanitarian intervention within the shifting geopolitical landscape, focusing on the implications for US-China relations during President Donald Trump’s second term in office. Building on historical precedents and theoretical frameworks, the study analyzes how the US might invoke humanitarian intervention as a dual-purpose tool – asserting moral leadership while countering China’s growing influence in regions of strategic interest. It further explores the challenges of applying lessons from interventions in the unipolar era to a world increasingly defined by multipolarity and strategic rivalry. By contextualizing Trump’s assertive foreign policy stance and examining potential justifications for the programme PRISMA, Contributing to Modern Partnerships: Assessments of SinoEU-Serbian Relations – COMPASS Project, Grant No. 7294, interventionism, the paper offers critical insights into how humanitarian motives might align with or mask broader geopolitical objectives. Consequently, this analysis sheds light on the security implications for US-China relations, contributing to the wider discourse on the intersection of ethics, power, and global governance.

Извори и литература

Референце

  1. The U.S. Mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization China [US NATO]. 2021. “Remarks by President Biden on Afghanistan.” The U.S. Mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. August 16, 2021. https://nato.usmission.gov/remarks-by-president-biden-on-afghanistan.
  2. Chase, Michael S., Cristina L. Garafola, and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga. 2018. “Chinese perceptions of and responses to US conventional military power.” Asian Security 14 (2): 136–154. DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2017.1301931.
  3. Chesterman, Simon. 2011. “‘Leading from Behind’: The Responsibility to Protect, the Obama Doctrine, and Humanitarian Intervention after Libya”. Ethics & International Affairs 25(3): 279-285. DOI: 10.1017/S0892679411000190.
  4. Dawson, Grant. 2022. “‘No future for Libya with Gaddafi’: Classical realism, status and revenge in the UK intervention in Libya.” Cambridge Review of International Affairs 35 (3): 357–374. DOI: 10.1080/09557571.2021.1888879.
  5. Harding, Brian. 2019. “The Trump administration’s free and open Indo-Pacific approach.” In Southeast Asian Affairs, eds. Daljit Singh and Malcolm Cook, 61–68. Singapore: ISEAS Publishing. DOI: 10.1355/9789814843164-006.
  6. Hsiao, Russell. 2024. “Taiwan Policy under the Second Trump Administration.”
  7. Global Taiwan Institute. November 27, 2024. https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/11/taiwan-policy-under-the-second-trump-administration.
  8. Jansen, Marenne, and Eric-Hans Kramer. 2023. “The Future of the Comprehensive Approach as a Strategy for Intervention.” In Violence in Extreme Conditions: Ethical Challenges in Military Practice, eds. Eric-Hans Kramer and Tine Molendijk, 87–98. Cham: Springer International Publishing.
  9. Kavanagh, Jennifer, Bryan Frederick, Alexandra Stark, Nathan Chandler, Meagan L. Smith, Matthew Povlock, Lynn E. Davis, and Edward Geist. 2019. Characteristics of successful US military interventions. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.
  10. Kerton-Johnson,
  11. Nicholas. 2010. Justifying America's wars: the conduct and practice of US military intervention. New York: Routledge.
  12. Kessler, Glen. 2024. “Trump falsely claims no terrorist attacks, no wars during his presidency.” The Washington Post. January 13, 2024. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/13/trump-falsely-claims-no-terrorist-attacks-no-wars-during-his-presidency/.
  13. Kindleberger, Charles. 1974. The Formation of Financial centers. A study in Comparative Economic History. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  14. Lin, Ying Yu and Tzu-Hao Liao. 2024. “The Resumption of China-US Military Dialogue and the Limits of the Thaw.” The Diplomat. October 25, 2024. https://thediplomat.com/2024/10/the-resumption-of-china-us-military-dialogue-and-the-limits-of-the-thaw.
  15. Matthews, William. 2024. “Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy will accelerate China’s push for global leadership.” Chatam house. November 14, 2024. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/trumps-america-first-foreign-policy-will-accelerate-chinas-push-global-leadership.
  16. Ministry of Foreign Affairs The People’s Republic of China [MFA PRC]. 2024. “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian's Regular Press Conference.” Ministry of Foreign Affairs The People’s Republic of China. July 12, 2024. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xw/fyrbt/lxjzh/202407/t20240730_11463258.html.
  17. Mitić, Aleksandar. 2024. “A decade of Serbia’s EU accession process: implications for Sino-Serbian political relations.” In Proceedings from the 4th Dialogues on China international conference, eds. Aleksandar Mitić and Katarina Zakić, 511–527. Belgrade: Institute of International Politics and Economics.
  18. Pant, Harsh. V., and Kashish Parpiani. 2020. “US Engagement in the Indo-Pacific: An Assessment of the Trump Era.” Observer Research Foundation. October 28, 2020. orfonline.org/research/us-engagement-in-the-indo-pacific-an-assessment-of-the-trump-era.
  19. Rauta, Vladimir. 2020. “Proxy warfare and the future of conflict: Take two.” The RUSI Journal 165 (2): 1–10. DOI: 10.1080/03071847.2020.1736437.
  20. Russell, Clyde. 2024. “Where will Trump and China drive commodities in 2025?” Reuters. December 19, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/where-will-trump-china-drive-commodities-2025-russell-2024-12-19.
  21. Saunders, Phillip C., and Julia G. Bowie. 2016. “US-China military relations: competition and cooperation.” Journal of Strategic Studies 39 (5–6): 662–684. DOI: 10.1080/01402390.2016.1221818.
  22. Schweller, Randall L., and Xiaoyu Pu. 2011. “After unipolarity: China's visions of international order in an era of US decline.” International security 36 (1): 41–72. DOI: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00044.
  23. Scobell, Andrew. 2018. “The South China Sea and US-China Rivalry.” Political Science Quarterly 133 (2): 199–224. DOI: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00044.
  24. Seybolt, Taylor B. 2007. Humanitarian military intervention: the conditions for success and failure. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  25. Smith, William. 2007. “Anticipating a cosmopolitan future: The case of humanitarian military intervention.” International Politics 44 (1): 72–89. DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.ip.8800159.
  26. Stanojević, Nataša, and Katarin Zakić. 2023. “China and deglobalization of the world economy.” National Accounting Review 5 (1): 67–85. DOI: 10.3934/NAR.2023005.
  27. Stekić, Nenad. Z. 2021. „Vojne intervencije i postkonfliktna izgradnja države u eri unipolarnosti: slučaj Savezne Republike Jugoslavije, Avganistana i Iraka.” PhD diss. Univerzitet u Beogradu, Fakultet bezbednosti.
  28. Stekić, Nenad. Z. 2022. “Are the Hawks Watching Closely? Reports on China’s Military Power for the US Congress, 2001–2021.” The Review of International Affairs 73 (3), 33–60. DOI: 10.18485/iipe_ria.2022.73.1186.2.
  29. Sullivan, Patricia L., and Michael T. Koch. 2009. “Military intervention by powerful states, 1945-2003.” Journal of Peace Research 46 (5): 707–718. DOI: 10.1177/0022343309336796.
  30. US Mission to International organization in Geneva. 2024. “US Statement at the Universal Periodic Review of the People's Republic of China.” US Mission to International organization in Geneva. January 23, 2024. https://geneva.usmission.gov/2024/01/23/u-s-statement-at-the-universal-periodic-review-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-english-version.
  31. US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. 2024. “China's Position on Russia's Invasion of Ukraine.” US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. December 12, 2024. https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-position-russias-invasion-ukraine.
  32. White House. 2017. National Security Strategy of the United States of America. Washington: White House.
  33. White House. 2021. “Remarks by President Biden on the Drawdown of US Forces in Afghanistan.” 15.12.2024. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/08/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-drawdown-of-u-s-forces-in-afghanistan
  34. Wippman, David. 1995. “Change and Continuity in Legal Justifications for Military Intervention in Internal Conflict.” Columbia Human Rights Law Review 27: 435.
Из истог броја

Повезане публикације