Institute for Political Studies

11 Dobrinjska Street
(4th floor)
11000 Belgrade

Contact details
SR
SR
Политика националне безбедности 2/2021

БАЈДЕНОВА АДМИНИСТРАЦИЈА И КОНТРОЛА НАОРУЖАЊА

Authors
UDCУДК: 327+355.02(73)”2021” Pages45-73 Year2021
Download PDF 10.22182/pnb.2122021.3
Research overview

Abstract

Да ли је Бајденова администрација успела да поврати бар неки део либералног међународног поретка делом деградираног за време мандата Доналда Трампа? Да ли се Бајден понаша у складу са својим и обећањима своје странке за време изборне кампање, или се придржава политика зацртаних од стране свог претходника? И колико од тога је урађено у области контроле наоружања? То су питања на која ће аутори овог рада покушати да одговоре. Закључци ће бити донети на основу анализе теоријских претпоставки које се налазе у позадини Трамповог и Бајденовог приступа међународним институцијама, у шта спада и контрола наоружања; затим на основу историјске анализе Трамповог наслеђа у овом контексту, анализе садржаја Бајденових обећања и обећања Демократске партије за време кампање, у поређењу са ставовима Републиканаца. У процени резултата прве године мандата новог америчког председника у области контроле наоружања, аутори закључују да су резултати двозначни и разликују се од случаја до случаја: понегде, Бајден се придржавао политика које је усвојила Трампова администрација, док је у другим случајевима приступ потпуно промењен.

Sources and literature

References

  1. Al Jazeera. 2021. “Amid tensions, US and Russia hold ‘substantive’ arms talks.” 28 July 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/28/amid-tensions-us-and-russia-hold-substantive-arms-talks, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  2. BBC. 2020. “Coronavirus: Trump moves to pull US out of World Health Organization.” 7 July 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53327906, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  3. Barzashka, Ivanka. 2021. “Biden should guide missile defense his own way.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 9 September 2021.
  4. Brooks, Linton F. 2020. “The End of Arms Control?,” Dædalus, 149 (2): 84-100.
  5. Bolton, John, and John Yoo. 2014. “An Obsolete Nuclear Treaty Even Before Russia Cheated.” Wall Street Journal, 9 September 2014, https://www.wsj.com/articles/john-bolton-and-john-yoo-an-obsolete-nuclear-treaty-even-before-russia-cheated-1410304847, accessed 1 September 2021.
  6. Borger, Julian. 2020. “White House held talks over resuming US nuclear tests, John Bolton says.” The Guardian, 22 July 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/22/john-bolton-us-nuclear-tests-white-house, accessed 2 September 2020.
  7. Borger, Julian, and Andrew Roth. 2018. “EU warns Trump of nuclear arms race risk after INF withdrawal move.” 23 October 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/22/eu-us-nuclear-arms-race-inf-treaty-bolton-moscow, accessed 2 September 2020.
  8. Bugos, Shannon. 2021. “Biden to Speed Development of Hypersonic Weapons.” Arms Control Today, July/August 2021. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-07/news/biden-speed-development-hypersonic-weapons, accessed 15 September 2021.
  9. Cirincione Joseph. 2019. “John Bolton is a serial arms control killer.” The Washington Post, 1 February 2019. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2019/02/01/inf/, accessed 14 September 2021.
  10. CRS. 2021. Hypersonic Missile Defense: Issues for Congress. Congressional Research Service. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/IF11623.pdf, accessed 26 September 2021.
  11. Davenport, Kelsey. 2021. “Iran Suggests Harder Line in Nuclear Talks.” Arms Control Today, September 2021. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-09/news/iran-suggests-harder-line-nuclear-talks, accessed 13 September 2021.
  12. D’Agostino, Susan. 2021. “North Korea restarted nuclear reactor for plutonium production, IAEA says.” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 30 August 2021. https://thebulletin.org/2021/08/north-korea-restarted-nuclear-reactor-for-plutonium-production-iaea-says/utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ThursdayNewsletter09302021&utm_content=NuclearRisk_NorthKoreaRestartedNuclearReactor_08302021, accessed 18 September 2021.
  13. Davenport, Kelsey, and Julia Masterson. 2021. “New Iran President May Complicate Nuclear Talks.” Arms Control Today, July/August 2021. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-07/news/new-iran-president-may-complicate-nuclear-talks, accessed 13 September 2021.
  14. Davis, Julie Hirschfeld. 2018. “Trump Warns NATO Allies to Spend More on Defense, or Else.” The New York Times, July 2, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/02/world/europe/trump-nato.html, accessed 13 August 2021.
  15. Democratic Party Platform [DP]. 2020. “2020 Democratic Party Platform, Renewing American Leadership.” https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/renewing-american-leadership/, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  16. Dietl, Ralph L. 2018. The Strategic Defense Initiative: Ronald Reagan, NATO Europe, and the Nuclear and Space Talks, 1981–1988. Washington DC: Lexington Books.
  17. Dudar, Hasan, and Derdre Shesgreen. 2018. “Trump’s long list of global trade deals, agreements exited or renegotiated.” USA Today, 21 November 2018. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/11/21/donald-trump-foreign-policy-iran-nafta-russia-mexico-canada-trade/1732952002/, accessed 5 September 2021.
  18. Deutsche Welle. 2021. “US signals return to UN Human Rights Council.” 8 February 2021, https://www.dw.com/en/us-signals-return-to-un-human-rights-council/a-56497172, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  19. Dunne, Tim. 2020. “Liberal internationalism,” In The Globalization of world politics, eds. John Baylis, Steve Smith and Patricia Owens, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  20. Gould, Joe. 2020. “Russia denies New START ‘gentleman’s agreement’ with US.” Defense News, October 14, 2020. https://www.defensenews.com/2020/10/14/russia-denies-new-start-gentlemans-agreement-with-us/, accessed 10 August 2021.
  21. Holsti, Kal. J. 2004. Taming the Sovereigns, Institutional Change in International Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  22. Hulsman, John. 2021. “Why the Biden administration must not trade away homeland missile defense.” Defense News, June 14, 2021.https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2021/06/14/why-the-biden-administration-must-not-trade-away-homeland-missile-defense/, accessed 28 June 2021.
  23. Keohane, O. Robert. 1988. “International Institutions: Two Approaches.” International Studies Quarterly, (32) 4: 379-396.
  24. Kostić, Marina T. 2017. „Marksističke teorije međunarodnih odnosa u XXI veku.“ Međunarodni problemi 69 (2-3): 285-307.'
  25. Kostić, Marina T. 2020. „Strateška stabilnost i mogućnosti uključivanјa Kine u pregovore o kontroli strateškog naoružanјa.“ Međunarodni problemi Vol. 72 (4): 678-708.
  26. Lee, Matthew. 2021. “US tells Russia it won’t rejoin Open Skies arms control pact.” AP News, May 27, 2021. https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-europe-russia-government-and-politics-69038e96de8488f2c759b126c27d1366, accessed 27 June 2021.
  27. Masterson, Julia. 2021. “Iran Edges Toward Resuming Nuclear Talks.” Arms Control Today. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-10/news/iran-edges-toward-resuming-nuclear-talks, accessed 1 October 2021.
  28. McGrath, Matt. 2020. “Climate change: US formally withdraws from Paris agreement.” BBC, 4 November 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54797743, accessed 20 June 2021.
  29. Mearsheimer, John J. 1994. “The False Promise of International Institutions.” International Security 19 (3): 5-49.
  30. NATO. 2019. “Statement by the North Atlantic Council on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.” 2 August 2019. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_168164.htm, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  31. NATO. 2021. “Brussels Summit Communiqué.” 14 June 2021. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.html, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  32. NPR. 2018. “Read The Joint Statement From President Trump And Kim Jong Un.” June 12, 2018. https://www.npr.org/2018/06/12/619168996/read-the-joint-statement-from-president-donald-trump-and-kim-jong-un, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  33. Nye, Joseph S. 2020. “International institutions still matter to the US.” Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 10 November 2020. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/international-institutions-still-matter-to-the-us/, accessed 15 August 2021.
  34. Park, Susan. 2020. “International organizations in world politics.” In The Globalization of world politics, eds. John Baylis, Steve Smith and Patricia Owens, 319-333. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  35. PBS. 2019. “U.S. and Israel officially withdraw from UNESCO.” January 1, 2019, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/u-s-and-israel-officially-withdraw-from-unesco, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  36. Rafati, Naysan. 2021. “Iran’s uranium gambit is a dangerous negotiating tactic.” The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, July 13, 2021. https://thebulletin.org/2021/07/irans-uranium-gambit-is-a-dangerous-negotiating-tactic/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ThursdayNewsletter07152021&utm_content=NuclearRisk_Iran%27sUraniumGambit_07132021, accessed 13 September 2021.
  37. Reif, Kingston. 2019. “Bolton Renews New START Criticism.” Arms Control Today, September 2019. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-09/news/bolton-renews-new-start-criticism, accessed 5 September 2021.
  38. Reif, Kingston. 2021a. “Biden Administration Begins Nuclear Posture Review.” Arms Control Today, September 2021. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-09/news/biden-administration-begins-nuclear-posture-review, accessed 5 September 2021.
  39. Reif, Kingston. 2021b. “Trump-Era Missile Defense Spending Continues.” Arms Control Today, July/August 2021. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-07/news/trump-era-missile-defense-spending-continues, accessed 5 July 2021.
  40. Reif Kingston, and Shannon Bugos. 2020. “Critics Question U.S. Open Skies Complaints.” Arms Control Today, July/August 2020. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-07/news/critics-question-us-open-skies-complaints, accessed 16 July 2021.
  41. Reif, Kingston, and Shannon Bugos. 2021a. “U.S., NATO Reiterates Rejection of Deploying Ground-Based Nuclear Missiles.” Arms Control Today, June 4 2021, https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2021-06/us-russian-nuclear-arms-control-watch, accessed 15 June 2021.
  42. Reif, Kingston, and Shannon Bugos. 2021b. “U.S., Russia Outline Differing Priorities for Dialogue.” Arms Control Today, June 4 2021. https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2021-06/us-russian-nuclear-arms-control-watch, accessed 15 June 2021.
  43. Reif, Kingston, and Shannon Bugos. 2021c. “U.S., Russia Agree to Strategic Stability Dialogue.” Arms Control Today, June 4 2021. https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2021-06/us-russian-nuclear-arms-control-watch, accessed 4 July 2021.
  44. Reif, Kingston, and Shannon Bugos. 2021d. “Russia to Withdraw from Open Skies Treaty.” Arms Control Today, June 23, 2021. https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2021-06/us-russian-nuclear-arms-control-watch, accessed 4 July 2021.
  45. Republican Platform [RP]. 2016. https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/7019-republican-platform/cc2c15a0e1b432d6964b/optimized/full.pdf, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  46. Reuters. 2021. U.S. and Russia say they held ‘substantive’ arms control talks in Geneva. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-russia-say-held-intensive-substantive-arms-control-talks-geneva-2021-09-30/, accessed 1 October 2021.
  47. Snyder, Scott A. 2021. “Biden’s Policy Review Leaves North Korea Challenge In Limbo.” Forbes, May 17, 2021. https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottasnyder/2021/05/17/bidens-policy-review-leaves-north-korea-challenge-in-limbo/?sh=3a5da11fc82b, accessed 10 June 2021.
  48. Shesgreen, Deirdre. 2018. “Dismissing Russian concerns, John Bolton says there is no way to salvage nuclear weapons treaty.” USA Today, 23 October 2018. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/10/23/bolton-putin-no-way-salvage-landmark-nuclear-weapons-treaty/1741463002/, accessed 23 June 2021.
  49. Smetana, Michal, Michal Onderco, and Tom Etienne. 2021. “Do Germany and the Netherlands want to say goodbye to US nuclear weapons?” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (77) 4: 215-221
  50. Smith, Josh. 2021. “North Korea says U.S. attempt to initiate contact is ‘cheap trick’,” Reuters, March 17, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa/north-korea-says-u-s-attempt-to-initiate-contact-is-cheap-trick-kcna-idUSKBN2B92ZQ, accessed 4 July 2021.
  51. Tertrais, Bruno. 2009. “France: French Perspectives on Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Disarmament.” STIMSON, www.jstor.org/stable/resrep10836, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  52. The White House [WH]. 2015. “The National Security Strategy.” February 2015. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy_2.pdf, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  53. The White House [WH]. 2021. “Interim National Security Strategic Guidance.” March 2021. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  54. The White House [WH Biden speech]. 2021. “Remarks by President Biden at the 2021 Virtual Munich Security Conference.” February 19, 2021. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/19/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-2021-virtual-munich-security-conference/, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  55. The White House [WH Joint Statement]. 2021. “U.S.-Russia Presidential Joint Statement on Strategic Stability.” June 16 2021. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/16/u-s-russia-presidential-joint-statement-on-strategic-stability/, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  56. The White House [WH Address]. 2021. “Remarks by President Biden in Address to a Joint Session of Congress.” April 29, 2021. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/29/remarks-by-president-biden-in-address-to-a-joint-session-of-congress/, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  57. Thompson, Loren. 2021. “Joe Biden, A Longtime Missile Defense Skeptic, Now Must Decide How To Protect The U.S. Homeland.” Forbes, 26 January 2021. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2021/01/26/joe-biden-a-longtime-missile-defense-skeptic-now-must-decide-how-to-protect-the-us-homeland/, accessed 15 June 2021.
  58. Toms, Lauren, Dave Boyer, and Lauren Meier. 2019. “U.S. withdraws from INF Treaty with Russia.” Washington Times, 1 February 2019. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/feb/1/us-withdraws-inf-treaty-russia/?utm_source=GOOGLE&utm_medium=cpc&utm_id=chacka&utm_campaign=TWT+-+DSA&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1urfptPT8gIVzN_tCh2zQwFIEAAYASAAEgLSUfD_BwE, accessed 15 June 2021.
  59. US Department of Defense [US DoD]. 2021. “Missile Defense Review Will Address Growing Threats From Iran, North Korea, Others.” June 11, 2021. https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2654964/missile-defense-review-will-address-growing-threats-from-iran-north-korea-others/, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  60. US Senate [USS]. 2021. Statement Prepared of Hon. Joseph R. Biden, Jr., “National Missile Defense: Where are we going?.” Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations. July 24, 2001, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-107shrg74505/html/CHRG-107shrg74505.htm, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  61. VOA. 2021. “North Korea Dismisses US Calls for Talks.” 29 September 2021. https://www.voanews.com/a/north-korea-dismisses-us-calls-for-talks/6251388.html, accessed 1 October 2021.
  62. Wendt, Alexander. 1992. “Anarchy is what states make of it: the social construction of power politics.” International Organization 46 (02):391-425
  63. WRAL. 2020. “John Biden: Lead not by example of power, but power of our example.” November 8, 2020, https://www.wral.com/joe-biden-lead-not-by-example-of-power-but-power-of-our-example/19375665/, last accessed 26 September 2021.
  64. Wolfsthal, Jon Brook. 2020. “Why Arms Control?” Dædalus, 149 (2): 101-115.
From the same issue

Related publications